Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting
Ano de Divulgação
C22 - Time-Series Models
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
There is widespread evidence of parameter instability in the literature. One way to account for this feature is through the use of time-varying parameter (TVP) models that discount older data in favour of more recent data. This practise is often known as forgetting and can be applied in several different ways. This paper introduces and examines the performance of different (flexible) forgetting methodologies in the context of the Kalman filter. We review and develop the theoretical background and investigate the performance of each methodology in simulations as well as in two empirical forecast exercises using dynamic model averaging (DMA). Specifically, out-of-sample DMA forecasts of CPI inflation and S&P500 returns obtained using different forgetting approaches are compared. Results show that basing the amount of forgetting on the forecast error does not perform as well as avoiding instability by placing bounds on the parameter covariance matrix.
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