Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis
Ano de Divulgação
F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation
H20 - General
We assess the effects of a temporary fiscal devaluation enacted in Spain or Portugal on the trade balance by simulating EAGLE, a large-scale multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Social contributions paid by firms are reduced by 1 percent of GDP for four years and are financed by increasing the consumption tax. Our main results are the following. First, in the first year following implementation, the Spanish trade balance improves by 0.5 percent of GDP, the (before-consumption tax) real exchange rate depreciates by 0.7 percent and the terms of trade deteriorate by 1 percent. Second, similar results are obtained in the case of Portugal. Third, the trade balance improves when the fiscal devaluation is also enacted in the rest of the euro area, albeit to a lower extent than in the case of unilateral (country-specific) implementation. Fourth, quantitative results crucially depend on the degree of substitutability between domestic and imported tradables.
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