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Dynamic factor models with jagged edge panel data: Taking on board the dynamics of the idiosyncratic components

Autores 
Maximiano Pinheiro
Francisco Dias
Ano de Divulgação 
2012
Resumo 
As macroeconomic data are released with different delays, one has to handle unbalanced panel data sets with missing values at the end of the sample period when estimating dynamic factor models. We propose an EM algorithm which copes with such data sets while accounting for autoregressive common factors and allowing for serial correlation in the idiosyncratic components. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, we find that taking on board the dynamics of the idiosyncratic components improves significantly the accuracy of the estimation of both the missing values and the common factors at the end of the sample period.