Calibration and the estimation of macroeconomic models
Ano de Divulgação
C32 - Time-Series Models
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Model Evaluation and Testing
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
We propose two measures of the impact of calibration on the estimation of macroeconomic models. The first quantifies the amount of information introduced with respect to each estimated parameter as a result of fixing the value of one or more calibrated parameters. The second is a measure of the sensitivity of parameter estimates to perturbations in the calibration values. The purpose of the measures is to show researchers how much and in what way calibration affects their estimation results -- by shifting the location and reducing the spread of the marginal posterior distributions of the estimated parameters. This type of analysis is often appropriate since macroeconomists do not always agree on whether and how to calibrate structural parameters in macroeconomic models. The methodology is illustrated using the models estimated in Smets and Wouters (2007) and Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2012).
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