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Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular

Ano de Divulgação 
2022
Código JEL 
C30 - General
C55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Resumo 
Assessing the momentum of the business cycle is of utmost importance for policymakers and private agents. In this respect, the use of business cycle clocks has gained prominence among national and international institutions to depict the current stage of the business cycle. Drawing on circular statistics, we propose a novel approach to business cycle clocks in a datarich environment. The method is applied to the main euro area countries resorting to a large dataset covering the last three decades. We document the usefulness of the circular business cycle clock to capture the business cycle stage, including peaks and troughs, with the findings being supported by the cross-country evidence.
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