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Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview
The aim of this article is to provide a stylised, concise description of the methodology underlying the short-term forecasting exercise for the economic activity regularly conducted at Banco de Portugal. As in the case of other central banks, it is useful to share the experience acquired in the development of tools aimed at obtaining short-term forecasts for the Portuguese economy. The rationale underlying the methodology is discussed intuitively and its corresponding presentation should be considered merely illustrative due to the dynamics of the process. This approach may potentially change, due to the continuous search for additional indicators and use of alternative econometric models. The article also presents an overview of analogous experiences at other central banks, namely within the Eurosystem.