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Short-term forecasting of indirect tax revenues: an application for Portugal
In recent times the prompt assessment of the evolution of the fiscal situation has become increasingly important. This topic is even more relevant in the case of Portugal, which is currently subject to an Economic and Financial Assistance Programme. In this context, this paper aims to produce short-term forecasts at an infra-annual frequency for the general government deficit, on a national accounts basis, in Portugal. It focuses on indirect tax revenues and uses “short-term forecasting” techniques which, in the literature, are essentially geared to economic developments. The results vary in line with the considered taxes: VAT, tax on oil products and tax on vehicle sales.