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The Quarterly National Accounts in real-time: an analysis of the revisions over the last decade

Publication Year 
In this article, the revisions of the Portuguese Quarterly National Accounts over the last decade are analyzed. We assess the real-time behaviour of GDP estimates and corresponding expenditure and supply side components. In particular, we focus on the revisions up to one year after the release of the first estimate as well as on the revisions resulting from the inclusion of the Annual National Accounts. In the case of GDP, the reliability of the flash estimate, more recently made available by INE, is also assessed. The results for GDP suggest that the revisions up to one year are not significant although the revisions can be larger when the Annual National Accounts are included. The expenditure components related with external trade present the largest revisions while the supply side estimates are more fragile than those from the expenditure side.
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Journal (repec) 
Economic Bulletin