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Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy
C32 - Time-Series Models
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
The purpose of this paper is to review developments in a number of uncertainty measures for Portugal and gauge their impact on macroeconomic developments in recent years, particularly on GDP, private consumption and GFCF. Our analysis shows that elevated uncertainty had a significant negative impact on economic activity during the financial and sovereign debt crises, while the unwindinding of uncertainty associated with the conclusion of the economic and financial assistance programme in 2014 boosted the subsequent recovery.