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House prices in Portugal - what happened since the crisis?
House prices in Portugal have been increasing in the recent past, following a relatively inexpressive evolution during the 1990s and early 2000s. Prior to the crisis and despite the cyclical nature of residential real estate markets most models did not consider the need for breaks. This article analyses the factors driving house price movements in Portugal, with main emphasis on the crisis and post-crisis periods. First we analyze the relationship between a set of important fundamental variables and house price growth and second, we investigate if there have been any changes in the relevance of the fundamental variables. Finally, we determine whether house prices are likely to increase in the near future and we observe that the estimated probability is high.