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The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment
Arne J. Nagengast
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G32 - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2013) to a rich dataset of matched bank-firm loans in the Portuguese economy for the period 2005 to 2013. We argue that their decomposition framework can also be used in the presence of small firms with only one banking relationship as long as they account for a small share of the total loan volume of their banks. The growth rate of individual loans in our dataset is decomposed into bank, firm, industry and common shocks. Adverse bank shocks are found to strongly impair firm-level investment, particularly in small firms and in those with no access to alternative financing sources. For the economy as a whole, granular shocks in the banking system account for around 20-40% of aggregate investment dynamics.