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Cyclically-adjusted current account balances in Portugal
João Falcão Silva
This article uses the methodology suggested by Fabiani et al. (2016) to compute cyclically-adjusted current account balances for the Portuguese economy in the period 1995-2017. The methodology makes use of domestic and foreign output gaps, export elasticities and the import content of domestic demand, distinguishing between cyclically-adjusted exports and imports. In addition, we compute the cyclically-adjusted bilateral exports and imports relative to the main Portuguese trade partners.We conclude that the strong current account adjustment observed in the Portuguese economy after 2010 was mainly structural, though a positive effect resulting from cyclical developments was also observed.