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A circular business cycle clock for Portugal

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The assessment and tracking of business cycles have always played an important role in policymaking and economic decisions in general. In this respect, the use and development of business cycle clocks have long attracted a lot of attention among national and international organisations. Building on circular statistics, a novel approach is pursued to depict the business cycle momentum in Portugal resorting to a large monthly dataset. We show that such approach allows for a timely and reliable tracking of business cycle developments, namely during peaks and troughs which typically constitute a challenge for economic monitoring. In addition, a circular clock for the year-on-year growth rate cycle is put forward.
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