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Assessment of the exposure of the Portuguese banking system to non-financial corporations sensitive to climate transition risks
Ana Margarida Carvalho
G21 - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters
Climate change is a source of risk to financial stability. This article presents a quantification of the exposure of the Portuguese banking system to non-financial corporations (NFCs) sensitive to the risks arising from the transition to a low-carbon economy. The results suggest that about 60% of banks’ exposures to NFCs are in climate-policy-relevant sectors (CPRS), chiefly in the sectors dedicated to construction, transaction and use of buildings and, to a lesser extent, in sectors associated with the production and use of means of transportation and in energy-intensive industries. This article also presents a methodology for estimating direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by sector of activity, from resident NFCs with bank financing. The calculation of carbon intensity on the basis of these estimates shows that around 60% of banks’ exposures to NFCs is below the median of this indicator. This result is consistent with the higher concentration of exposures in climate-policy-relevant sectors with lower direct GHG emissions.