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Assessing the Scoreboard of the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure: (Machine) Learning from Decisions

Francisco Gonçalves
Tiago Alves
Publication Year 
JEL Code 
C40 - General
F15 - Economic Integration
This paper uses machine learning methods to identify the macroeconomic variables that are most relevant for the classification of countries along the categories of the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP). The random forest algorithm considers the 14 headline indicators of the MIP scoreboard and the set of past decisions taken by the European Commission when classifying countries along the macroeconomic imbalances categories. The algorithm identifies the current account balance, the net international investment position and the unemployment rate as key variables, mostly to classify countries that need corrective action, notably through economic adjustment programmes.
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