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Related Pages
November 2023 Financial Stability Report
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The Financial Stability Report analyses emerging risks in the Portuguese markets and financial system, by identifying possible adverse shocks and assessing their consequences for the stability of the financial system.
Increased risks to financial stability
Prospects for weaker economic activity, together with high interest rates, have increased risks to financial stability. This situation may worsen due to global geopolitical tensions. The political uncertainty experienced in Portugal is a new source of risk, albeit mitigated by the expected approval of the State Budget for 2024 as proposed by the current government.
Portuguese banks are more resilient
Portuguese banks have been increasing their capital and liquidity. This improves their ability to absorb possible losses resulting from a less favourable economic and financial situation and to continue to finance the economy. It also allows banks to access funding from the European Central Bank and the market if they need it.
More vulnerable households and businesses may find it difficult to repay their debts
If the economy grows slowly, unemployment increases and interest rates remain high, the most vulnerable households and firms will find it harder to repay their debts.
Banks:
- Should adjust loan terms and conditions to the borrowers’ ability to pay, while keeping an appropriate risk assessment.
- Should pursue prudent provisioning and capital conservation policies allowing them to use part of the profits to increase their resilience, considering existing risks. Banks are expected to actively incorporate digitalisation and climate transition into their risk analyses.
Macroprudential policy
Under the Macroprudential Recommendation on new consumer credit agreements and in order not to hinder the granting of credit in the current environment of high interest rates, the Banco de Portugal has decided to reduce the shock to the interest rate used to calculate the debt service-to-income (DSTI) ratio for new credit to households with a maturity of more than ten years by 150 basis points, with proportional reductions being made over the remaining maturities.
The Banco de Portugal also decided to introduce a sectoral systemic risk buffer. The application of this buffer is preventive and aims to make banks more resilient to a potential deterioration in economic conditions or an unexpected significant correction in residential real estate prices.