June 2022 issue of the Economic Bulletin
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The June issue of the Economic Bulletin publishes detailed projections of the Banco de Portugal for the Portuguese economy in 2022 and the two subsequent years. For more information on the June 2022 issue of the Economic Bulletin, see:
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Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2022-24
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Activity has returned to pre-pandemic levels and will resume convergence with the euro area |
Tourist spending will help support the economy |
Prices will increase markedly in 2022, but grow less in subsequent years |
Due to the invasion of Ukraine, there is a risk that the economy will grow less and prices will rise more than projected |
Activity has returned to pre-pandemic levels and will resume convergence with the euro area
Economic activity recovered until the start of 2022 and returned to pre-pandemic levels.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine increases uncertainty, limits trade and production and exacerbates the rise in prices. For the rest of 2022, activity is expected to remain broadly stagnant and below previous projections.
In 2023 and 2024, activity will grow at a pace close to its historical average.
The economy will resume convergence with the euro area over the projection period.
Tourist spending will help support the economy
Tourism has recovered and should remain buoyant until 2024.
Household consumption increased considerably at the beginning of 2022, but is expected to slow down due to uncertainty and reduced purchasing power. Wage and employment growth will support household income and consumption in subsequent years.
Inflows of European funds will boost investment.
Prices will increase markedly in 2022, but grow less in subsequent years
The recent increase in prices resulted from a rise in the prices of imported goods. The invasion of Ukraine has made energy and food even more expensive.
Prices will continue to rise sharply for longer than previously expected, but the increase will be less pronounced in 2023 and 2024.
Due to the invasion of Ukraine, there is a risk that the economy will grow less and prices will rise more than projected
The invasion of Ukraine makes economic developments more uncertain.
If it lasts longer and its effects worsen, activity may grow less and the rise in prices may be stronger in 2022 and 2023 than currently projected.
