Economics in a picture
Within the set of large firms, the larger ones have a higher probability of remaining at the top
Considering the set of 200 firms in Portugal with the highest turnover, in each year of the period from 1981 to 2018, we observe that there is more stability in the top positions of the ranking. The firms in positions [1-25] have a slowly decreasing probability of remaining in that class, standing at 87% and 81% after 1 and 2 years, respectively, and remaining around 29% after 20 years. For the firms placed in the class [26-50] the probabilities of keeping their position also decrease as the time span widens, reaching approximately 17% after 20 years, while in the lower classes of the ranking the probabilities decay faster and stand below 5% after 20 years.
Moreover, on average, for different ranking classes and time horizons, the probability of rising in the rank is lower than the probability to fall.
For more details, see Amador, Lourenço, Magalhães and Pimenta (2020): “Rise and fall of the largest firms in Portugal”, published in Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, vol. VI, n.º 4.
Prepared by Ana Catarina Pimenta and João Amador. The analyses, opinions and findings expressed above represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem.
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