The economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak is difficult to quantify. Based on the results of the Fast and Exceptional Enterprise Survey – COVID-19 (Statistics Portugal and Banco de Portugal), enterprise’s turnover in April is estimated to have stood 35% below the level expected without a pandemic in the set of sectors covered by the survey. The results show that more than half of the decline in activity during this period was associated with Trade, Transportation, Accommodation and food services, and Other services, reflecting restrictions during the state of emergency period, namely the shutdown of establishments open to the public and constraints to people’s movements and travel. The containment measures adopted during the state of emergency had also a negative impact on effectively working staff, with an estimated 29% decrease in April, compared with a normal scenario. At sectoral level, reductions in effectively working staff are largely consistent with the reported declines in activity, although of a lesser magnitude.

For the two following months – when the state of emergency ceased and the containment measures began to be lifted – the results suggest a gradual improvement, with enterprise’s activity declining 30% in May and 22% in June compared to a normal situation. Progress was broad-based, albeit slightly more noticeable in the Industry and energy and Trade sectors. The signs of recovery are also perceptible when considering effectively working staff.

Further details in Box 2 “Impact of the pandemic on Portuguese enterprises – analysis based on the results of the COVID-IREE” in the June 2020 Economic Bulletin (Banco de Portugal) and Fast and Exceptional Enterprise Survey – COVID-19, 2^nd fortnight of June 2020 (in Portuguese only), available on Banco de Portugal and Statistics Portugal websites.

Prepared by Ana Sequeira, Cristina Manteu and Nuno Monteiro. The analysis, opinions and results expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily coincide with those of Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem.

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