The level of Portuguese NAWRU – Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment, i.e. the unobserved unemployment rate that does not trigger excessive wage pressure – was around 5.5% in Portugal, over the 80s and the 90s, according to several estimates. Duarte, Maria and Sazedj (2019) confirm this result and estimate that the NAWRU increased since the beginning of the 2000s, having peaked at almost 11% in 2013. Despite declining in the following period, the authors estimate that the NAWRU remains above the observed levels in the beginning of the sample.

In the euro area NAWRU is more stable. Notice, however, that the euro area presented persistently higher unemployment rates over the first three decades. Therefore, the developments observed in the Portuguese labour market imply that both observed and trend unemployment approached euro area levels.

For more details see the article Duarte, Maria and Sazedj (2019), “Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions”, Banco de Portugal, Working Paper, No 18/2019. 

Prepared by Cláudia Duarte, José R. Maria and Sharmin Sazedj. The analyses, opinions and findings expressed above represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem.

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