Developments in the resident population in Portugal have been quite volatile. In cumulative terms, in the last quarter of the 20th century population increased by 10%, and in the first two decades of the 21st century it was broadly unchanged: by early 2022 it was at the same level as in 2002, albeit with an older structure.

The positive contribution of the natural population change (difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths) decreased over several decades and became negative from 2009 onwards.

On the other hand, migration flows have had a more volatile contribution driven by short-term developments, including several episodes of economic expansion or recession. Since 2017 there was a positive contribution of net migration (difference between the number of permanent immigrants and permanent emigrants) that has allowed the resident population to grow in Portugal since 2019. More recent indicators like the estimates for 2022 from Statistics Portugal and short-term indicators for 2023 point to an intensification of immigration flows.

For more details see “Special Issue - Demography in Portugal: scenarios for the 21th century”, Economic Bulletin of Banco de Portugal, June 2023.

Prepared by António Antunes, Fátima Cardoso, Vanda Cunha and Cláudia Duarte. The analyses, opinions and findings expressed above represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of Banco de Portugal or Eurosystem.

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