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Economics in a picture
23.06.2023
The increase in household income should cover the increase in the expenditure on essential goods and in the debt service between 2021 and 2023
Between 2021 and 2023, food prices are expected to increase by around 20% and energy prices by around 9%. Over the same period, debt service per household is expected to increase around 15% on average. The rise in inflation and interest rates has been accompanied by an increase in household income, which benefited from the dynamism of the labour market and measures to support the income of the most vulnerable. The increase in income is higher in the groups of households most exposed to the increase in food and energy prices and in interest rates. Between 2021 and 2023, for all groups of households analysed, disposable income minus essential expenses will grow, on average, close to or over the projected accumulated change in the HICP excluding food and energy. This means that households will be able to service their debts and maintain a level of consumption of food and energy identical to that of 2021, without jeopardizing other types of expenses.
It should be noted that the analysis is based on average values for each group of households. In all the groups under analysis there will be households with an unfavourable evolution of income and with difficulties in meeting essential expenses.
For more details see Box 4 “Income after debt service and expenditure on food and energy: evidence for different types of households” in the Economic Bulletin of Banco de Portugal, June 2023.
Prepared by Sónia Costa and Luísa Farinha. The analyses, opinions and findings expressed above represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem.
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