Economics in a picture
Euro area GDP level is projected to closely reach its pre-pandemic path by the end of 2022
In the September 2021 ECB macroeconomic projection exercise, the euro area GDP growth rate was revised up for 2021 and remained broadly unchanged for 2022 and 2023 standing at 5.0%, 4.6% and 2.1% respectively. This revision implies that the level of GDP in the euro area is expected to reach the pre-pandemic level by the end of this year and stand fairly close to the path projected before the beginning of the pandemic (in December 2019) by the end of 2022.
In the projection rounds since the start of the pandemic crisis, the projected level for euro area GDP was successively revised upwards, suggesting that the impact of the pandemic on economic activity was not as substantial as initially anticipated. This can be explained by the strong monetary and fiscal policy support measures, advances in vaccination campaigns and a better than expected adaptation by economic agents to the pandemic environment. This profile of upward revisions in the projected level of GDP is also observed in the Portuguese economy.
For more details, see the September 2021 ECB macroeconomic projection exercise and the Economic Bulletin of Banco de Portugal, Jun-21.
Prepared by Alexandre Carvalho. The analyses, opinions and findings expressed above represent the views of the author and not necessarily those of Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem.
03.09.2021 - Economics in a picture: The components that contributed the most to the GDP fall in 2020 were exports and private consumption, although to a lesser extent when adjusted for the import content