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Economic Bulletin – October 2024
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THE ECONOMY WILL SLOW DOWN IN 2024 AND RECOVER IN 2025–26, OUTGROWING THE EURO AREA
Consumption and exports will support activity growth in 2024.
The recovery in investment, impelled by lower interest rates and EU fund inflows, will help boost the economy in 2025–26.
The number of employed individuals is expected to increase up to 2026. Immigration will continue to help fulfil labour needs in most sectors of activity.
The unemployment rate will remain at multi-decade lows.
HOUSEHOLDS WILL STRENGTHEN THEIR SAVINGS
Households will see a marked increase in disposable income in 2024, owing to the favourable labour market situation and to fiscal measures.
However, households will strengthen their savings. This will be driven by positive interest rates and increased household caution, after the shocks of recent years and uncertainty about developments in public savings. Strengthening savings will also help restore wealth’s purchasing power, which has declined due to the surge in inflation.
PRICE GROWTH WILL STABILISE AT 2% IN 2025–26
Inflation will decrease in 2024 and stabilise at 2% over the following two years.