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Economic Bulletin – December 2024
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ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE IN 2025–26, SLOWING DOWN IN 2027, WITH PREVAILING DOWNSIDE RISKS
Lower interest rates, improved global trade and the inflow of European funds will boost the economy in the next two years.
More people will be employed, and unemployment will remain low.
The Portuguese economy is expected to grow more than the euro area until 2027.
However, the future has become more uncertain. Geopolitical and protectionist tensions are reflected in downside risks to the economy.
INFLATION WILL CONVERGE TO 2%, AS IN THE EURO AREA
Price pressures will be more moderate, including lower wage growth.
Inflation will decrease further and stabilise at 2% in 2026–27.
PUBLIC ACCOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO DEFICIT
The public debt ratio will continue to decline until 2027, albeit at a slower pace.
This projection points to risks to compliance with the new European fiscal rules.