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Economic Bulletin - December 2023
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Economic activity will gradually recover
Activity has stagnated in recent quarters but will gradually recover over the course of 2024.
Global trade, lower inflation and the boost from European funds should help the economy recover.
However, the domestic political situation and geopolitical conflicts and tensions make this outlook more uncertain.
Growth will outperform that in the euro area, supported by investment and exports
The Portuguese economy will continue to grow more than the euro area economy up to 2026.
Investment will recover, benefiting from the increased European fund inflows and the macro-financial environment for investment.
Exporting firms are expected to increase their external market share.
Prices will rise at a slower pace, of around 2% from 2025 onwards
Inflation has declined rapidly in recent months and will return to 2% in 2025.
Past interest rate hikes will continue to contribute to curbing price increases.