December 2022 issue of the Economic Bulletin
The December issue of the Economic Bulletin disseminates detailed projections for the Portuguese economy in the current and following three years.
For more information on the December 2022 issue of the Economic Bulletin, see:
The economy is expected to decelerate in 2023 and recover in 2024–25, continuing to outgrow the euro area
Activity decelerated in the course of 2022, after recovering from the pandemic crisis.
The invasion of Ukraine has affected confidence and compounded price increases. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to reduce pressures on prices.
These factors are expected to continue to limit activity growth up to mid-2023. Employment and unemployment should remain stable.
The Portuguese economy will continue to grow more than the euro area economy, as has been the case since 2016, with the exception of 2020.
Price increases are expected to slow down from 2023 onwards
The 2022 increase in prices was the highest in the past 30 years.
Rising international energy and food prices spilled over into the remaining prices. The recovery in tourism has also made some services more expensive.
Prices will grow less in 2023 and beyond, as a result of fewer international pressures and measures taken by the European Central Bank.
Curbing price increases is key to protecting households’ purchasing power and economic recovery.
There is a risk that the economy will grow less and prices will rise further if there is a shortage of gas in Europe or there are sharp increases in wages and profits
Economic developments are very uncertain.
If energy supply disruptions arise or if wages and corporate profits rise more than expected, activity will grow less and prices will rise more than currently projected.