08h30
| Registration
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09h00
| Welcome and opening remarks
Carlos da Silva Costa, Governor, Banco de Portugal
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09h20
| Financial stability in retrospect and prospect
David Aikman, Bank of England
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09h50
| Session I | Assessing the impact of macroprudential policy
In the wake of the international financial crisis macroprudential policy has emerged as a new field of public policy, alongside fiscal and monetary policy and microprudencial supervision. However, questions still remain on its ultimate effects: not only the impacts on financial markets and on the economic activity, but also the way macroprudential policy interacts with other policy fields. Uncertainty subsists also in terms of welfare outcomes. This session discusses theoretical and empirical contributions concerning the role and effects of macroprudential policy over distinct phases of financial and business cycles.
Chair: Ana Cristina Leal, Banco de Portugal
Answering the Queen: Machine learning and financial crises
Hélène Rey, London Business School
Can macroprudential policy tame financial-real interactions?
Mikael Juselius, Suomen Pankki
On the effectiveness of macroprudential measures
Leonardo Gambacorta, Bank for International Settlements & CEPR
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11h05
| Coffee break
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11h30
| Roundtable: “Current challenges for micro and macroprudential regulation”
Chair: Luís Laginha de Sousa, Banco de Portugal
Vítor Constâncio, President of the School Board of Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG) and former Vice President of the ECB
Ignazio Angeloni, Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the ECB Supervisory Board
Javier Suarez, Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI)
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12h45
| Lunch break
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14h15
| Session II | Lending to non-financial corporations: risks to financial stability and policy action
Some EU Member States faced, as a result of the crisis, a significant increase of non-performing loans associated with non-financial corporations and, for some of them, this increase seems to be associated with high levels of debt build up before the crisis. Against this background, the academic literature has devoted attention to the assessment of debt sustainability of NFC and its macroeconomic and financial implications. This session discusses the empirical evidence on the implications of risk-taking and debt building up of non-financial corporations for the functioning of the credit market, bank’ profitability and economic growth. In addition, it explores policy actions that could be undertaken to forestall similar risk build ups related to lending to NFC in the upward phase of the financial cycle.
Chair: Inês Drumond, Banco de Portugal
Aggregate implications of corporate leverage
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland
Systemic Corporates
Julien Idier, Banque de France
Predicting NFCs vulnerability and debt sustainability using a micro-based approach: The case of Portugal
Francisco Augusto, Banco de Portugal
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15h30
| Session III | The systemic importance of housing and mortgage markets
A significant number of past financial crises had real estate markets at their centre. As such, the study of the role of the housing and mortgage markets in shaping the business and financial cycles is key for determining how macroprudential instruments directed to the mortgage market should be activated and should operate. This section is devoted to understanding the features of housing and mortgage markets that render them systemically important and the transmission channels of related macroprudential instruments.
Chair: António Antunes, Banco de Portugal
The housing market and financial stability
David Miles, Imperial College London
The macroprudential toolkit: Effectiveness and interactions
Margarita Rubio, University of Nottingham
Macroprudential policy in practice: The case of Ireland
Martin O’Brien, Central Bank of Ireland
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16h45
| Concluding Remarks
Luís Laginha de Sousa, Banco de Portugal
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