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Conference on Financial Stability

Conference on Financial Stability 2019
08 Oct. 2019
09:00 - 17:15
The Banco de Portugal 2019 Conference on Financial Stability will focus on the challenges in assessing the effects of macroprudential policies, on the systemic importance of housing and mortgage markets and on risks to financial stability related to the sustainability of lending to non-financial corporations and related policy issues.

The Conference venue is in the Banco de Portugal main building located in the historical part of Lisboa at Largo de São Julião.

Attendance is by invitation only.

 

Questions about arrangements should be addressed to Anabela Marques (FinancialStability@bportugal.pt).

 

Programme

08h30

Registration

09h00

Welcome and opening remarks
Carlos da Silva Costa
, Governor, Banco de Portugal

09h20

Financial stability in retrospect and prospect
David Aikman
, Bank of England

09h50

Session I | Assessing the impact of macroprudential policy
In the wake of the international financial crisis macroprudential policy has emerged as a new field of public policy, alongside fiscal and monetary policy and microprudencial supervision. However, questions still remain on its ultimate effects: not only the impacts on financial markets and on the economic activity, but also the way macroprudential policy interacts with other policy fields. Uncertainty subsists also in terms of welfare outcomes. This session discusses theoretical and empirical contributions concerning the role and effects of macroprudential policy over distinct phases of financial and business cycles.

Chair: Ana Cristina Leal, Banco de Portugal

Answering the Queen: Machine learning and financial crises
Hélène Rey
, London Business School

Can macroprudential policy tame financial-real interactions?
Mikael Juselius
, Suomen Pankki

On the effectiveness of macroprudential measures
Leonardo Gambacorta
, Bank for International Settlements & CEPR

11h05

Coffee break

11h30

Roundtable: “Current challenges for micro and macroprudential regulation”

Chair: Luís Laginha de Sousa
, Banco de Portugal

Vítor Constâncio, President of the School Board of Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG) and former Vice President of the ECB
Ignazio Angeloni, Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the ECB Supervisory Board
Javier Suarez, Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI)

12h45

Lunch break

14h15

Session II | Lending to non-financial corporations: risks to financial stability and policy action
Some EU Member States faced, as a result of the crisis, a significant increase of non-performing loans associated with non-financial corporations and, for some of them, this increase seems to be associated with high levels of debt build up before the crisis. Against this background, the academic literature has devoted attention to the assessment of debt sustainability of NFC and its macroeconomic and financial implications. This session discusses the empirical evidence on the implications of risk-taking and debt building up of non-financial corporations for the functioning of the credit market, bank’ profitability and economic growth. In addition, it explores policy actions that could be undertaken to forestall similar risk build ups related to lending to NFC in the upward phase of the financial cycle.

Chair: Inês Drumond, Banco de Portugal

Aggregate implications of corporate leverage
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
, University of Maryland

Systemic Corporates
Julien Idier
, Banque de France

Predicting NFCs vulnerability and debt sustainability using a micro-based approach: The case of Portugal
Francisco Augusto
, Banco de Portugal

15h30

Session III | The systemic importance of housing and mortgage markets
A significant number of past financial crises had real estate markets at their centre. As such, the study of the role of the housing and mortgage markets in shaping the business and financial cycles is key for determining how macroprudential instruments directed to the mortgage market should be activated and should operate. This section is devoted to understanding the features of housing and mortgage markets that render them systemically important and the transmission channels of related macroprudential instruments.

Chair: António Antunes, Banco de Portugal

The housing market and financial stability
David Miles
, Imperial College London

The macroprudential toolkit: Effectiveness and interactions
Margarita Rubio
, University of Nottingham

Macroprudential policy in practice: The case of Ireland
Martin O’Brien
, Central Bank of Ireland

16h45

Concluding Remarks
Luís Laginha de Sousa
, Banco de Portugal

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