08.30
| Registration
|
09.00
| Welcome and opening remarks
Carlos da Silva Costa, Governor, Banco de Portugal
|
09.20
| The evolving risk landscape in the euro area
Vítor Constâncio, Vice President, European Central Bank
|
09.50
| SESSION I | EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
The international financial crisis and the subsequent reforms in financial regulation, the current monetary policy framework and the low economic growth and interest rate environment have had significant implications on banks’ business models and on financial intermediation in general, including the activity of insurers and pension funds. This session discusses the main challenges imposed by this changed environment on financial institutions’ profitability, behavior toward risks and on overall financial stability.
Chair: Ana Cristina Leal, Banco de Portugal
Banks’ Incentives and Inconsistent Risk Models
João Santos | Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Interest Rates, Market Power, and Financial Stability
Rafael Repullo | Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (Cemfi)
Bank Profitability and Macroeconomic Factors
Vítor Oliveira | Banco de Portugal
|
11.20
| Coffee-break
|
11.40
| SESSION II: MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY ISSUES
Even though several countries have implemented macroprudential policies in the aftermath of the financial crisis, questions remain concerning their effectiveness. Overall, instruments are found to be more adequate to smooth out the financial cycle during a boom than to help economic recovery during a bust. This session discusses possible issues arising from the implementation of macroprudential policy: defining the optimal policy stance; availability of policy instruments to mitigate vulnerabilities in the downturn of the financial cycle (e.g. excessive indebtedness, NPL); the interactions of policy instruments in the mitigation of systemic risk (e.g. interaction of capital and liquidity requirements; interaction with other policies).
Chair: João Santos, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Use and Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies: Overview and Evidence
Stijn Claessens | Bank for International Settlements
Trade-Offs in Macroprudential Policy
John Fell | European Central Bank
How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s
Atif Mian | Princeton University
|
13.00
| Lunch
|
14.30
| SESSION III: FRONTIERS OF RESEARCH IN RISK ANALYSIS AND POLICY
The aim of this session is to critically review the most commonly used methodologies in the analysis of systemic risks and their mitigation and to discuss the most promising advances in research in order to overcome its limitations (e.g., extensions to DSGE models in order to consider heterogeneous agents, occasionally binding constraints; contributions from behavioural economics).
Chair: António Antunes, Banco de Portugal
Mind the gap: modelling risk and resilience
Alex Brazier| Bank of England
Promise and Challenges in Modeling Financial Crises Risk and Macroprudential Policy
Enrique Mendoza | University of Pennsylvania
Regulation, Competition, and Stability in the Banking Industry
Dean Corbae | University of Wisconsin – Madison
|
15.50
| Roundtable: main challenges for financial stability and macroprudential policy at the current juncture
Chair: Luís Laginha de Sousa, Banco de Portugal
Alex Brazier | Bank of England
João Santos | Federal Reserve Bank of New York
John Fell | European Central Bank
|
17.00
| Concluding remarks
Luís Laginha de Sousa, Banco de Portugal
|
