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Publications and research > Research > Economists > José R. Maria

José R. Maria

Fields of study: 
Macroeconomics
DSGE modeling
Models for the Portuguese Economy

 

 

Economics and Research Department

jrmaria@bportugal.pt

 

  

 

Education:

M.A. in Economics, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, 1992-1994

Licenciatura in Economics, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, 1987-1992

 

Professional experience:

Economist, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal, since 2000 

Economist, Foreign Department, Banco de Portugal, 1994-1999 

Consultant, Banco Nacional de Angola, International Monetary Fund, 2010 

National Central Bank expert, EU Countries Division (Temporary secondment), European Central Bank, 2002 

National Central Bank expert, EU Countries Division (Temporary secondment), European Central Bank, 2004

Banco de Portugal scientific articles (37)
2022
Pandemic shocks
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2021
Cyclical outputs and structural budget balances
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2021
Lessons from a finitely-lived agents structural model
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2020
Exchange Rate Cooperation Agreement between Portugal and Cabo Verde: characterisation, developments and challenges after 20 years
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2019
The countercyclical capital buffer: A DSGE approach
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2019
Potential output: How does Portugal compare with the euro area over the last 40 years?
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2018
Interest rate spreads hikes: What lies behind them?
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2017
Output in the Portuguese post-2008 period: A general equilibrium narrative
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2016
Portugal: Trends, cycles, and instability in output and unemployment over 2008-2012
Banco de Portugal Economic Studies
2023
Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period
Working Papers
2022
Comparing estimated structural models of different complexities: What do we learn?
Working Papers
2021
Risk shocks, due loans, and policy options: When less is more!
Working Papers
2019
Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions
Working Papers
2018
An integrated financial amplifier: the role of defaulted loans and occasionally binding constraints in output fluctuations
Working Papers
2017
The Portuguese post-2008 period: A narrative from an estimated DSGE model
Working Papers
2016
Output and unemployment, Portugal, 2008–2012
Working Papers
2015
Financial Fragmentation Shocks
Working Papers
2015
Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?
Working Papers
Published at: Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 44, pp. 276–29
2013
Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model
Working Papers
2013
Ageing and fiscal sustainability in a small euro area economy
Working Papers
Published at: Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 21, Issue 7, pp. 1673-1705, 2017
2013
Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?
Working Papers
2011
Fiscal Consolidation in a Small Euro Area Economy
Working Papers
Published at: International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 9, Issue 4, pp. 1–38, 2013
2010
Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in a small euro area economy
Working Papers
2010
Fiscal Stimulus in a Small Euro Area Economy
Working Papers
2008
Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data
Working Papers
2007
International Trade Patterns over the Last Four Decades: How does Portugal Compare with other Cohesion Countries?
Working Papers
Published at: Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 9(2), pp. 77-95, 2010
2007
Relative Export Structures and Vertical Specialization: A Simple Cross-Country Index
Working Papers
Published at: Open Economies Review, Vol. 22(3), pp. 447-461, 2011
2004
On the Use of the First Principal Component as a Core Inflation Indicator
Working Papers
2014
Financial frictions and shock transmission: the Portuguese case
Economic Bulletin Articles
2011
Fiscal consolidation in a small euro area economy
Economic Bulletin Articles
2011
Fiscal policy in a small euro area economy
Economic Bulletin Articles
2010
How to Measure Unemployment? Implications for the NAIRU
Economic Bulletin Articles
2008
Forecasting Investment in Portugal Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data
Economic Bulletin Articles
2007
MIMO - a Monthly Inflation Model
Economic Bulletin Articles
2007
Export Specialization Over the Last Four Decades: How Does Portugal Compare With Other Cohesion Countries?
Economic Bulletin Articles
2006
Relative Export Structures and Vertical Specialization: A Simple Cross-Country Index
Economic Bulletin Articles
2009
The Portuguese Economy in the Context of Economic, Financial and Monetary Integration
Other Contributions
Other scientific articles (5)
2016
Labor market modelling in the light of the financial crisis
Other Contributions
Published at: ECB Occasional Paper, nº. 175
2015
Comparisons and contrasts of the impact of the crisis on euro area labour markets
Other Contributions
Published at: ECB Occasional Paper No. 159
2015
Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe
Other Contributions
Published at: ECB Working Paper No. 1760
2012
Euro Area Labour Markets and the Crisis
Other Contributions
Published at: ECB Occasional paper, No. 138
2010
What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns? Evidence for Portugal, Spain, Greece and Ireland
Other Contributions
Published at: Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 9, Issue 2, pp. 77-95
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