Today, Banco de Portugal publishes, in Table A.6 of the Statistical Bulletin and in BPstat, national financial accounts data for the second quarter of 2019.

Revision of national financial accounts

From this publication onwards, data on national financial accounts are consistent with the 2016 benchmark year of the Portuguese national accounts, released by INE in 23 September 2019. This information reflect the update of basic data, improvements in compilation processes and methodological changes. Consistent quarterly data are, therefore, released from the fourth quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2019. These revisions do not significantly change the results that were previously published for financial stocks and transactions, either in terms of signal or evolution. 

In relation to financial transactions (Chart 3), in recent periods, a downwards revision of net lending of non-financial corporations, and an upwards revision of net borrowing of households and financial corporations can be observed. These revisions are consistent with the ones performed by INE in the non-financial accounts and reflect namely the incorporation of data on social benefits received by resident households from abroad, and the upwards revision of property income paid by non-financial corporations to households.

Chart 3 ● Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) by institutional sector | percentage of GDP

External statistics revisions

The external statistics revisions included an update of the existing data sources and methodologies, the use of new sources, improvements in the compilation process and reflect a greater consistency with the rest of the world account of INE’s responsibility.

The combined current and capital account balance (Chart 5) was revised upwards, in particular, over the past three years. In 2018, the balance revised about 1 percentage point, up to 1.4 per cent of GDP.

The main revision with a positive impact in the secondary income balance (Chart 6) was justified by the incorporation of administrative data concerning social benefits received from abroad.

In contrast, the balance of goods and services account was revised downwards, in particular starting 2012, reflecting the incorporation of complementary information on e-commerce. In addition, the downward revision of the balance of goods was justified by the inclusion of a broader range of economic, legal or illegal phenomena, as recommended by international manuals.

Other revisions, like the one incurred in “Travel”, due to methodological changes and due to the incorporation of new data sources, had a positive impact on the services account. This revision is mainly attributable to the incorporation of INE information in what concerns overnight stays that started to include local accommodation, as well as improvements in the appropriation of information from payment systems of Banco de Portugal.

In what concerns the financial account and the international investment position (IIP), major changes are related with the incorporation of a new methodology for the computation of both trade credits and interest accrued and not yet paid.

At the end of 2018, the IIP (Chart 7) reviewed -12 billion euros, and stood at -105.6 per cent of GDP, less than 5 percentage points when compared to the previous series. Contributing to this reduction were the above-mentioned revisions in the financial account as well as the change in the valuation of unlisted shares and other equity. This change contributed to the downward revision of the IIP as revisions in Portuguese companies' stock of liabilities are higher than revisions in stock of assets.

In addition, a new source of administrative information was adopted for the purchase and sale of real estate between residents and non-residents in order to reflect the dynamics felt in recent years in the Portuguese real estate market, which led to an increase in financial liabilities vis-à-vis foreign countries.

The change in the IIP was reflected in an upward revision of net external debt (Chart 8). At the end of 2018, net external debt reached about 91.2 percent of GDP. Revisions in external debt were lower than revisions in the IIP because debt does not incorporate the capital component and, as such, does not reflect the impact of the revaluation of unlisted shares and other equity.

Banco de Portugal published today the Economic Bulletin (in Portuguese only) which also includes a box on this subject.