Press Release of Banco de Portugal on the Economic Bulletin of June 2015
Today Banco de Portugal publishes the Economic Bulletin of June 2015. The Bulletin presents projections for the Portuguese economy for 2015-2017.
Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017
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From 2015 to 2017, economic activity should continue to recover, growing in line with projections for the euro area on average. After a GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in 2014, activity is expected to accelerate to a growth rate of 1.7 per cent in 2015, followed by 1.9 and 2.0 per cent in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
TABLE 1 • BANCO DE PORTUGAL PROJECTIONS: 2015-2017 | Annual rate of change, percent
Growth in the Portuguese economy growth will be driven by robust growth in exports and recovery in domestic demand.
Exports growth will continue to reflect the transfer of productive resources to the sectors most exposed to international competition. As a result, the net lending of the Portuguese economy should continue, leading to a sustained reduction in foreign borrowing.
Private consumption and gross fixed capital formation are expected to make a moderate recovery, conditioned by high indebtedness among households and non-financial corporations.
The economy's higher nominal growth, the prevailing record low interest rates and the positive primary balances should lead to a reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP from 2015.
The growth projected for the Portuguese economy is compatible with a progressive fall in unemployment, although it should remain at high levels.
Inflation should remain low, but will trend higher up to the end of the projection horizon, though to levels lower than those projected for the euro area.
The risks identified for the economic activity projection are broadly balanced. For inflation, the analysis points to slightly decreasing risks over the projection horizon.
Against this background, the Portuguese economy should pursue the adjustment under way, with sustainable increases in consumption, investment growth that ensures the renewal of capital and reductions in indebtedness in the private and public sectors. The success of the Portuguese economy will depend above all on its ability to increase the quantity and quality of its productive resources, the pursuit of structural reforms to promote sustained and equitable economic growth and economic policies that preserve the fundamental macroeconomic balances. The favourable international environment at present is a good opportunity to deepen this agenda in Portugal.
Lisbon, 8 June 2015
