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Paulo Esteves

Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Portuguese economy.

Presentation

Paulo Soares Esteves is an economist at the Economic Research Department of Banco de Portugal since 1990. He is currently the head of the Conjunctural and Forecasting Division.

BdP Publications

Title	Release Year	Publication Type
Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?	2013	Working Paper
Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview	2012	Economic Bulletin Article
Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice	2011	Working Paper
Calendar Effects in Daily ATM Withdrawals	2010	Working Paper
Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?	2009	Working Paper
The effects of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices	2008	Working Paper
What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?	2008	Working Paper
On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information	2008	Working Paper
Globalisation, Structural Changes in Exports and the Portuguese Terms of Trade	2008	Economic Bulletin Article
Foreign Competitors’ Price Aggregation in Computing Price-Competitiveness Indicators: An Application to the EU15 Countries	2007	Economic Bulletin Article
Measuring export competitiveness: revisiting the effective exchange rate weights for the euro area countries	2006	Working Paper
Portuguese Export Market Shares: An Analysis by Selected Geographical and Product Markets	2006	Economic Bulletin Article
Measuring Export Competitiveness: A View on the Portuguese Effective Exchange Rate Weights	2005	Economic Bulletin Article
Oil prices assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?	2004	Working Paper
Revisiting the NAIRU Estimates for the Portuguese Economy	2004	Economic Bulletin Article
Quarterly Series for the Portuguese Economy: 1977-2003	2004	Economic Bulletin Article
Oil Prices and the Economy	2004	Economic Bulletin Article
Monetary Conditions Index for Portugal	2003	Economic Bulletin Article
Uncertainty and Risk Analysis: na Application to the Projections for the Portuguese Economy in 2004	2003	Economic Bulletin Article
Modelling Taylor Rule Uncertainty	2002	Working Paper
Uncertainty in the Taylor Rule and monetary policy assessment	2001	Economic Bulletin Article

Other Publications

Title	Release Year	Publication
Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?	2011	The Empirical Economic Letters, 10(9), September 2011
On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgments with sample and model information	2010	Empirical Economics (forthcoming)
Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals	2010	Economics Bulletin, Vol.30 nº4, October 2010
Modelling Taylor rule uncertainty: an application to the euro area	2004	Economic Modelling, 21( 3), 2004, 561-572
Oil prices assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?	2004	OPEC Review, June 2004
Energy prices and inflation	2004	Encyclopedia of Energy, Vol.3, Elsevier, 2004
Lower prices in poor countries: technology, exchange rate and capital mobility	2002	Boletim de Ciências Económicas, vol. XVL-A, 2002
Portuguese GDP and its deflator before 1947: a revision of the data produced by Nunes, Mata e Valério (1989)	1995	Economia, Outubro 1995

Associated Documents

Paulo Esteves (pdf) - 26 Kb